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Alternative Visions
Alternative Visions

Alternative Visions

Dr. Jack Rasmus will focus on today’s continuing crisis in the U.S. and global economies.

Available Episodes 10

Today’s show reviews 3 important speeches of the past week: by Putin, France’s president Macron, and US Senator, Chuck Shumer. Speeches related to the US 3 wars in progress: Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, and Yemen. The Macron speech, an interview, reflected his retreat from the threat to send French-NATO (along with Baltics & Czech) to Ukraine. Deeper, it reflects chaos within EU/NATO as what strategy to implement now that Russia is defeating Ukraine and Trump-US may leave Europe holding the Ukraine war bag. Putin’s reply to Macron was if he (Macron) says there’s no longer any ‘red lines’, then Russia has none as well, including use of nuclear arms if Russia’s existence is threatened. Putin repeated his oblique suggestion again that the ‘west’ may take western Ukraine, which never was part of the Slavic homeland. Third speech by Shumer ‘warned’ Netanyahu was ‘out of control’ and elections should take place in Israel, clearly a message from Biden. All 3 US wars (proxy or direct as in Yemen) all going poorly. Show concludes with another ‘3s’: 3 economic reports in the US (CPI, PPI, and Retail sales) all showing a chronic inflation and emerging real economy slowdown developing.

Following initial comments on the Federal Reserve’s just issued Monetary Report’s warning about bank assets declining in value, this week’s show focuses on the topic of how US Presidents become multimillionaires after leaving office. Corruption by politicians promises to be a major campaign theme on both sides in the election this year. Republicans and Democrats are pushing their stories: Trump’s tax avoidance & Biden’s kickbacks through his son, Hunter Biden’s connections with oligarchs in Ukraine since 2016. (On that latter, the show asks questions about the recent arrest and  ‘indefinite detainment’ of Alex Smirnov, the long time FBI informant who broke the news of the Hunter bribes by Ukrainian oligarchs). The show then identifies the various means by which US presidents typically become 7-figure multimillionaires after they leave office, citing examples from Reagan to Obama. The show concludes with some updates on the Ukraine war, including the EU’s plan to issue Euro-wide bonds to raise $54B for Ukraine and why it may not fly.

Today’s show is dedicated to a discussion of the current state of the War in Ukraine. The theme is an analysis of the military action and strategies of both sides since the February 2022 start of the war, using the benchmark of the Principles of War famously proposed by Von Clausewitz. Examined are the first Russian offensive of 2022 followed by the Ukrainian offensive later that year. Then the disastrous second Ukrainian offensive of fall 2023 that crashed on the rocks of Russia’s 2023 Defense in depth. What’s happened after fall 2023 to the present, as Russia’s second offensive now, in February 2024, appears to be rolling out in the east, with even bigger offensives emerging in the north and south. How do the Principles of War explain the seesaw military actions of the first two years of the war. The show ends discussing the new political strategies of NATO/US, Russia and Ukraine now in development as well.  (For a published print version of the topics of today’s show go to: https://jackrasmus.com/2024/02/26/ukraine-war-and-the-ghost-of-clausewitz/

 Today’s show looks at the important key economies of the world as a growing number begin to slip into recession: new data shows Japan’s economy has been contracting the past six months. Germany has entered recession. So too has the UK. The Eurozone economy as a whole is stagnant. Global manufacturing has been contracting for some months among the G7 economies. Meanwhile China faces growing problems in its property (construction) sector and with emerging deflation in consumer goods prices as producer prices also continue to fall for the past 16 months.  Rasmus notes China home sales are now 1/6 of their peak at end of 2021 and then explains why deflation is even more serious than inflation. In the US, retail sales have turned negative, manufacturing is stagnant, and housing remains down 40% from its prior peak. At the same time both consumer and producer prices have started to rise once again. Can the US economy reach a ‘soft landing’ when the rest of the world key economies are slowing or in recession? (Next Week: Ukraine War military and political analysis as we enter 3rd year of war Feb. 25, 2024. Why a larger Russian offensive is imminent)

 Dr. Rasmus analyzes the Tucker Carlson-Putin Interview in detail today. What did Putin say about the war, its causes, prospects and future of NATO?

Today’s show addresses the US media’s practice of reporting the most favorable statistics on jobs, unemployment, inflation, wages, GDP from the mountain of data provided by the US Labor and Commerce departments. Dr. Rasmus gives a deep dive into the statistical reports to show why job gains last month may not be 353,000 but much less; why Biden’s claim of 3.1m jobs created last year may be only a third of that; why inflation is higher than reported; why one US survey says unemployment rate is 3.7% but another table in that same survey indicates 8% unemployment rate; why real wages didn’t rise 4.5% last year for tens of millions of American workers but much less.

Today’s show is dedicated to dissecting the just released US first report on 2023 GDP by the Commerce Dept. Dr. Rasmus breaks down the various contributing elements to US GDP (Consumption, Business Investment, Government Spending, and Net Exports) to identify where the changes in GDP in 2023 were strongest and weakest.  Explained as well is how the methodology for estimating inflation (GDP deflator price index) serves to low ball price changes and in turn boost the real GDP number of 2.5% for 2023. The methodology behind the GDP deflator is explained, and compared to the CPI (Consumer Price Index) with its higher estimate of inflation. Rasmus explains how changes to definition of GDP a decade ago also artificially boosted real GDP. Consumer spending held up in 2023 due to record credit card spending, drawdowns of savings and a surge in auto buying. Meanwhile, serious negative trends in business spending on equipment and housing construction continued in 2023 offset by a surprise jump in business spending on structures like factories; imports slowed faster than exports, and a sharp increase in 2023 in government spending on defense and state and local government all contributed (along with the low inflation adjustment) to the somewhat unexpected 2.5% GDP rise in 2023. Dr. Rasmus concludes, however, that the weaknesses within GDP do not ensure a ‘soft landing’ in 2024, which forecasts are saying will grow only 1-1.25% with recession in the first half of the year.

Whether ‘soft landing’ of the US economy—with inflation assumed to continue to abate and GDP to continue to grow—is in the works is the main topic of today’s show. Explained in depth is how US price index estimates are key to determine whether ‘soft landing’ will occur. Dr. Rasmus explains how the 3 US price indexes (CPI, PCE, GDP Deflator) are basically estimated, and why the lowest inflation estimator, the GDP Deflator, which is used to come up with GDP numbers, artificially boosts real GDP thus making a ‘soft landing’ look more likely. Rasmus also explains how artificial boosts to GDP were made possible by the redefinitions to GDP introduced in 2013 and in effect ever since.  Explained is if the CPI were used to adjust for inflation instead of GDP deflator, and if the questionable 2013 redefinitions are backed out of GDP calculation, 2023 GDP would now be stagnant at best; and if a more accurate CPI were used (with an inflation rate of around 5-6%) GDP 2023 would already be contracting, with a further contraction coming in first half 2024 now that prices for energy and other services are rising again. Rasmus thus argues Soft landing scenarios are exaggerated by the Inflation indexes (especially the GDP deflator) as well as result of past GDP redefinitions. In the last third of today’s show Dr. Rasmus previews some of the content and themes in his latest forthcoming 2024 book, “American Empire in Decline”.

Today’s show reviews the main economic & political events of 2023. Topics on the Economy include: US GDP & ‘Soft Landing’ talk; Inflation and Jobs trends; the March 2023 regional bank crisis; US Budget >$1T Deficit & $34T National Debt; the June US Debt Ceiling deal in Congress; major union strikes and contract negotiations; Chat-GPT & Artificial Intelligence; the Federal Reserve’s interest rate pause; Russian sanctions; Ukraine War funding; China’s economy and global economic slowdown. Topics on the Political front include: Israel-Hamas War; Ukraine’s Failed Military Offensive; US House Speaker change; Biden’s Impeachment hearings; Colorado and Maine State Ballot denials; Trump’s polling lead over challengers; RFKjr candidacy; AIPAC attack on US college presidents; Taiwan almost war; SCOTUS ethics & decisions; BRICS expansion; Putin’s Speech & Mideast Trip. Today’s show also briefly comments on the implications for US democracy of the Colorado & Maine decisions to deny Trump ballot status. (Next show on January 12 will focus on economic and political predictions for 2024)

Today’s show addresses two important developments of the past year. Dr. Rasmus reviews the major union contract settlements of the past year (Railroad, Teamsters, Longshore, Auto) to determine if the past 44 yrs of union concession bargaining has finally ended in major contract negotiations in the USA. Concession bargaining ‘markers’ like 2-tier wages, in benefits, hiring of temps, ending of COLAs, and other contract provisions are reviewed. Result: Latest Teamsters (UPS) and Auto Workers contracts mark the end of concession bargaining. Not so clear re. railroad workers and writers and actors, however. So mixed picture. But positive trend. The show also dissects the latest CPI inflation report showing continuation of the trend of goods prices decline but services prices stuck at 5-6% for months. Rasmus concludes Fed has decided to ‘live with’ 5%+ services inflation and not raise rates further (which have limited effect on prices in 21st century in any event). Fed’s decision now resulting in big surge in stock and bond prices and wealth of investors.